Tech Predictions
Posted by yamanickill on January 7, 2009
Right, ok, so its that time of year when everyone tries to say what they think will happen with tech in the next year/few years.
Now, I don’t know why people keep doing this…because they are almost always wrong. Let me give you a few examples.
Bill Gates 1982 – “640K is more memory than anyone will ever need”
PC World in 2000 – “Within 3 years we will have PDA and phone batteries that last a year, like watch batteries.”
Alan Sugar 2005 – “Next Christmas, the ipod will be kaput”
If you want more you can go here http://listverse.com/history/top-30-failed-technology-predictions/
So…the question we all ask is…why on earth do we do it?
I have an answer…because its fun.
I am not expecting anything I say to be correct…but at this point in time this is how I feel it will go this year.
- Microsoft will postpone their deadline for Windows 7. (Currently at 3rd quarter of this year)
- Apple won’t wait till Christmas to release their new Iphone, which is what they said they will do.
- 10000 people will once again say that this is the year of linux.
- This will be the year of linux.
- I will get my computer working again.
- Google will release 2 more versions of their G range of phones, taking as long to release the source code as they did with the first version.
- Canonical will make an increasingly stupid name for version 9.10 of Ubuntu. Kranky Kangaroo or something.
- We will see the start of the silicon -> something else switchover, near the end of the year.
- Google will release a desktop OS, because they don’t have one yet.
- Thunderbird 3.0 might get released…that would be nice…taking long enough.
- 3d desktops will become all the rage, and noone will believe linux users when they say we’ve had the cube for 6 years.
Ok, these are my predictions. If I think of anymore, I will put them in, but I will post one at the end of the year discussing what was right, and what was wrong.
Maybe I’ll be quoted as one of the top 30 worst predictions ever. Nah…that crown belongs to the people in the link above.
ScottGladstone said
1 microsoft I think will be smart and release either in the last quarter just as students are buying laptops or at CES next January as they will no longer be competing with Apple announcements at Macworld.
2 I think Apple will announce this year but release next year, though they might bump capacity from 8/16 GB to16/32 GB
3 Is a given
4 Nope, never will be.
5 Most Likely
6 I only think one new phone that is google branded like the G1 but more Android phones all round.
7 Totally agree
8 No idea
9 No Google OS. Chrome has the application button-thingy that opens webapps in standalone windows. Just expect the ability to sync Google Chrome settings across multiple PCs. An OS is too heavy.
10 3D desktops? Not sure. I could see something that combines elements of the Mozilla-imagined next gen browser Aurora with more staid OS features. It is all just further refinements – like Aero-Peek in Windows 7
Steven said
Hmm, well…
1. Is probably true but it looks relatively complete so it probably won’t slip too far. They might also release some kind of business-oriented version and hopefully slim down on the millions of options they sold with Vista. If they have any sense.
2. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a release in the summer of an iterated device with a decent camera and improved processing and graphics, with memory to match – probably 16/32Gb but maybe with a 64Gb variation. They might target the PSP/mobile video market more this way – if they can do it without harming ipod sales. We might also see some more business apps introduced (better document support for instance), integrated remote desktop and maybe some VM support.
3. Comes with the fanatics.
4. Nah, it’ll never happen. Though every year is its year in some way. We’ll see more savvy people switch but it’s never going to get the bulk market in that way.
5. Of course.
6. Amen to Scott.
7. Isn’t that official policy? It’ll be another increment of already great software.
8. That depends on the definition of “start” – it’s very close to being feasible technically to swap materials but it won’t be cost-effective to move from Si for a while yet. I’d expect it to last a good bit longer, and when the shift does begin to happen it probably won’t be to something completely mental, but something reliable and closer to home.
9. Doubt it. I think they may make more moves towards cloud computing, however, with android linking in. We may see linux distros like ubuntu building in better access to cloud-based apps, which we’re starting to see in stuff like dropbox, google apps and the like. I have a feeling it’ll all be more sync-based than truly web-based though. People like their offline content too much, and you can never truly guarantee your web link.
10. Yeah. I’m going to guess at May/June. But there are never any certainties with Mozilla!
11. No, it’s counter-productive in itself. I think new interfaces will be all the rage (aurora, multi-touch surfaces, etc) and these will probably be 3d-ified. But it’s the interface, not the eyecandy itself that will matter.
A few predictions from earlier in the year « 10 types of people said
[...] by yamanickill on June 24, 2009 Ok, some of you may remember I put down my 10 predictions for the coming year. Well, a few of them have come true. Lets [...]